📊 Akurasi Model — Rapor Kejujuran
Bukti model kita layak dipercaya: prediksi dicatat, dievaluasi otomatis saat match selesai
Hit Rate
55%
pick 1X2 benar
Brier Score
0.6186
acak ~0.667 (kecil = bagus)
Sudah Dinilai
20
match selesai
Menunggu
52
belum kickoff
🧭
Model WAJAR (20 match): hit 55%. Pantau terus.
Kalibrasi (seberapa jujur tingkat keyakinan)
Idealnya, saat model bilang "yakin 70-80%", kenyataannya benar ~75%. Kalau jauh meleset = model over/under-confident.
50-60%
53% benar
17 match
60-70%
67% benar
3 match
70-80%
—
0 match
80%+
—
0 match
Hasil yang sudah dinilai
| Pertandingan | Pick model | Yakin | Skor | Hasil | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico vs South Africa | Tim 1 | 39% | 2-0 | ✓ Benar | 0.5581 |
| Korea Republic vs Czech Republic | Tim 1 | 42% | 2-1 | ✓ Benar | 0.4998 |
| Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | Tim 1 | 51% | 1-1 | ✗ Salah | 0.849 |
| United States vs Paraguay | Tim 1 | 47% | 4-1 | ✓ Benar | 0.421 |
| Qatar vs Switzerland | Tim 2 | 57% | 1-1 | ✗ Salah | 0.9136 |
| Brazil vs Morocco | Tim 1 | 42% | 1-1 | ✗ Salah | 0.8094 |
| Haiti vs Scotland | Tim 2 | 42% | 0-1 | ✓ Benar | 0.5043 |
| Australia vs Türkiye | Tim 2 | 54% | 2-0 | ✗ Salah | 0.9257 |
| Germany vs Curacao | Tim 1 | 66% | 7-1 | ✓ Benar | 0.1792 |
| Netherlands vs Japan | Tim 1 | 45% | 2-2 | ✗ Salah | 0.846 |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs Ecuador | Tim 1 | 44% | 1-0 | ✓ Benar | 0.4633 |
| Sweden vs Tunisia | Tim 1 | 46% | 5-1 | ✓ Benar | 0.436 |
| Spain vs Cape Verde Islands | Tim 1 | 67% | 0-0 | ✗ Salah | 1.0929 |
| Belgium vs Egypt | Tim 1 | 53% | 1-1 | ✗ Salah | 0.8884 |
| Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay | Tim 2 | 48% | 1-1 | ✗ Salah | 0.827 |
| Iran vs New Zealand | Tim 1 | 57% | 2-2 | ✗ Salah | 0.9642 |
| France vs Senegal | Tim 1 | 50% | 3-1 | ✓ Benar | 0.38 |
| Iraq vs Norway | Tim 2 | 63% | 1-4 | ✓ Benar | 0.2055 |
| Argentina vs Algeria | Tim 1 | 51% | 3-0 | ✓ Benar | 0.3539 |
| Austria vs Jordan | Tim 1 | 59% | 3-1 | ✓ Benar | 0.2541 |
Prediksi tercatat, menunggu pertandingan (52)
Hit rate = % pick 1X2 model BENAR. Brier makin kecil makin akurat (acak 3-arah ~0.667; <0.6 sudah bagus). Kalibrasi: idealnya bucket 70-80% punya hit rate ~75%. Data terisi otomatis saat pertandingan selesai.
| Pertandingan | Pick model | Yakin | Skor | Hasil | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal vs Congo DR | Tim 1 | 60% | — | menunggu | — |
| England vs Croatia | Tim 1 | 46% | — | menunggu | — |
| Ghana vs Panama | Tim 2 | 46% | — | menunggu | — |
| Uzbekistan vs Colombia | Tim 2 | 53% | — | menunggu | — |
| Czech Republic vs South Africa | Tim 2 | 37% | — | menunggu | — |
| Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | Tim 1 | 50% | — | menunggu | — |
| Canada vs Qatar | Tim 1 | 50% | — | menunggu | — |
| Mexico vs Korea Republic | Tim 1 | 38% | — | menunggu | — |
| United States vs Australia | Tim 1 | 41% | — | menunggu | — |
| Scotland vs Morocco | Tim 2 | 52% | — | menunggu | — |
| Brazil vs Haiti | Tim 1 | 57% | — | menunggu | — |
| Türkiye vs Paraguay | Tim 1 | 55% | — | menunggu | — |
| Netherlands vs Sweden | Tim 1 | 52% | — | menunggu | — |
| Germany vs Côte d'Ivoire | Tim 1 | 51% | — | menunggu | — |
| Ecuador vs Curacao | Tim 1 | 45% | — | menunggu | — |
| Tunisia vs Japan | Tim 2 | 56% | — | menunggu | — |
| Spain vs Saudi Arabia | Tim 1 | 67% | — | menunggu | — |
| Belgium vs Iran | Tim 1 | 50% | — | menunggu | — |
| Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands | Tim 1 | 48% | — | menunggu | — |
| New Zealand vs Egypt | Tim 2 | 48% | — | menunggu | — |
+32 lagi…